Trump 2.0
The world woke up on Wednesday to the news that Donald Trump had, once again, won the Presidential race and been elected as the 47th President of the United States, a remarkable political comeback. Never before has a convicted felon been appointed to the most powerful seat in the country.
Whether you are American or not, you’ve likely been hearing a lot lately about the election, but now that we have these results, many people are wondering what Trump’s win actually means.
What happened last time Trump was elected?
In November of 2016, Donald Trump won the race for 45th President of the United States, against opponent Hillary Clinton. Let’s look back at what he did with his first term as President:
Social and Judicial Impact
Trump promised to appoint three Conservative Supreme Court justices—Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett—and succeeded, shifting the court's ideological balance towards the Republican side. This change played a critical role in numerous landmark decisions, most prominently, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which had upheld federal protections on abortion for half a century. This led to full abortion bans in Idaho, South Dakota, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Indiana, and partial abortion bans in Utah, Arizona, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Currently, there are only 9 (plus the District of Columbia) states in the U.S. with no abortion bans.
During the pandemic, the Trump administration facilitated the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines through Operation Warp Speed—ironic, considering such a large majority of his support base now are anti-vaxers. However, his approach to public health measures and pandemic communication was controversial and confusing, particularly his resistance to mask mandates and mixed messaging about the virus.
Immigration and Economic Impact
In 2017, Trump signed a major tax reform into law, cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and lowering income tax rates across several brackets. This policy aimed to stimulate economic growth, though it received criticism for disproportionately benefiting corporations and higher-income individuals, as opposed to the average American.
Trump’s immigration policies included a travel ban on several predominantly Muslim countries and a “zero tolerance” approach at the U.S.-Mexico border, which led to family separations. These policies sparked intense debate and legal challenges, reshaping immigration enforcement priorities during his administration.
He pursued an “America First” trade policy, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and renegotiating trade deals, such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to replace NAFTA. His trade policies aimed to reduce the trade deficit but led to trade tensions, especially with China, impacting various industries.
Foreign Policies Impact
Trump pulled the U.S. out of several multilateral global agreements, including the Paris Climate Agreement (citing certain economic disadvantages for the U.S.), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) (a trade agreement aimed at countering China's economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region), and the World Health Organization (WHO) (though, President Biden later rejoined during his term). Trump frequently criticized NATO allies for not meeting defense spending targets, suggesting the U.S. should only defend countries that contribute adequately to the alliance. He called for other NATO members to “pay their fair share” and sought to cut foreign aid, particularly to countries he deemed not helpful to U.S. interests. His administration favored reducing U.S. involvement in international development projects unless there was a clear benefit to U.S. security or economic interests.
Environmental Impact
Trump rolled back numerous environmental and financial regulations, arguing that they stifled business growth. Key examples included withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and dismantling multiple Obama-era regulations on carbon emissions, which critics argued hindered climate protection efforts.
Personal “Predicaments”
Before getting elected for his first term as President in 2016, Trump had already acquired six bankruptcies, all between 1991 and 2009. Since he was first elected, he has collected 34 felony counts for falsifying business records in the Manhattan hush money trial, two impeachments, two pending cases, and one conviction, and was found liable for sexual assault.
What has Trump said he'll do this time?
Social and Judicial Impact
Trump has suggested he would use the Department of Justice to investigate and potentially punish his political opponents and those who have "wronged" him in the past. For instance, he has stated multiple times that he plans to fire special counsel Jack Smith—who has overseen multiple cases against Trump, including his involvement in the January 6th coup—and end the federal cases against himself regarding trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election and mishandling classified documents. This approach could strain perceptions of judicial impartiality and potentially lead to a more polarized legal system.
On social issues, Trump and his allies have signaled interest in much stricter abortion regulations, stating women need to be “punished” for seeking abortions, no matter the circumstances. They have also shown interest in limiting rights related to gender identity and LGBTQ+ protections. If successful, these limits would impact any and all related healthcare and social services.
Immigration and Economic Impact
Once again, Trump has proposed tariff hikes on imports, including a 10-20% tariff on all foreign goods and up to 60% on Chinese products. While these tariffs aim to promote American-made goods, they could raise costs on daily consumer products, which would likely add thousands of dollars to annual household expenses.
Trump intends to revive stringent immigration policies from his previous term, including restrictions on work permits for undocumented immigrants and stricter enforcement measures like family separation at the border. He has also proposed, using the Alien Enemies Act, to deport certain non-citizens and aims to label drug cartels as terrorist organizations, which would likely complicate diplomatic relations with Mexico.
In a study performed by Bloomberg Economics, Trump’s mass deportation, along with his proposed tariffs, would cut the GDP by 8.9%—roughly twice the amount that the GDP dropped during the 2007 financial crisis, leading America to something between a recession and a depression.
He has stated that he will temporarily cap credit card interest rates at around 10%, which is less than half the current rate. He also stated he would nix taxes on workers’ tips and overtime hours.
He claims he will cut taxes further, mainly aiming to benefit businesses and higher-income earners. Though, he has not yet detailed how his new tax cut would work. The tax bill Trump signed in 2017 did initially lower taxes for all income groups, but wealthier taxpayers gained disproportionately. Though the details on how these new cuts will impact middle and lower-income households remain somewhat unclear, it seems as though taxes will be raised by $3,000 for the median family of four—which makes about $110,000 a year—and $950 for the typical single-person household, which makes about $40,000 a year. For the 45,000 U.S. households that make more than $10 million annually, Project 2025 will provide a tax cut of $1.5–2.4 million.
According to economists at the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s plan will actually lower economic growth, raise inflation and interest rates, and cause a larger budget deficit. They stated that Trump’s plans would potentially add upwards of $7.5 trillion (possibly up to $15 trillion) to the United States’ debt. When confronted about this in an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago, he stated, “What does the Wall Street Journal know? They’ve been wrong about everything. So have you [the interviewer], by the way.”
Foreign Policies
Aside from immigration and tariffs, Trump has highlighted some other points regarding foreign policy. Trump has expressed continued skepticism of NATO, hinting at a possible reevaluation of its mission and even suggesting a U.S. withdrawal if European allies don’t meet defense spending commitments. This stance aligns with his view that the U.S. often bears an unfair financial burden in global alliances. Trump has stated he would aim to quickly negotiate peace in Ukraine, though he hasn't provided specific details on how he would achieve this. He has been noncommittal about continuing U.S. military aid to Ukraine, which could signify a shift from the current U.S. stance of robust support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. When it comes to the Middle East and U.S. military intervention, Trump has signaled a less interventionist stance, yet he has also mentioned plans to target Mexican drug cartels potentially using military resources. In the Middle East, he may maintain a strong alliance with Israel while pushing back against Iran, continuing the policies of his first term.
Environmental Impact
Trump has repeatedly emphasized deregulation in favor of economic growth over environmental concerns. His administration may reverse many climate and environmental protections, potentially increasing greenhouse gas emissions by expanding fossil fuel production and cutting back on clean energy initiatives.
Some say we’ll lose our democracy, is this true?
Democracy in the U.S. is built on a system of checks and balances, with separate branches of government—executive, legislative, and judicial—designed to prevent any one individual or group from gaining too much political power. However, some of Trump’s actions and rhetoric during his presidency, such as his questioning of election results, his attempts to limit voting rights, his role in the January 6th attack on the Capital, and his challenges to the legitimacy of the press and judiciary, raise concerns about his ability to uphold our democratic values. These concerns persist with his continued influence in politics. His consistent mention and admiration of known authoritarian leaders—Vladimir Putin, Adolf Hitler, Kim Jong Un—does not quiet any of these concerns.
What does it all mean?
Trump's reelection will most likely bring significant changes to American society, particularly regarding his plans for the social and justice systems, but also in areas like trade, environmental regulation, and immigration, with a focus on a more nationalistic and deregulated economic model. This would likely perpetuate divisions on social and cultural issues in America, directly influencing policies that affect everyday life.
Whether you are a man or woman, black or white, gay or straight, American or not, this election result will likely impact your life in some aspect.
